Building Realistic Forecasting Models

Forecasting models are the crystal balls for an organisation. However, there is always a level of uncertainty with the accuracy of forecasting information. Generating a forecasting model that suits your organisation is paramount to increasing the accuracy of forecasting information. This talk explores techniques that use mathematical modelling models to extract from existing data an estimate of future occurrences.

• Exploring data analysis in financial forecasting
• Simple data mining techniques to find relationships within your financial data
• Building multivariate models
• Adding uncertainty to financial models
• Optimising financial models, including uncertainty
• Simulation methods to test the robustness of your model
• Testing the sensitivity of your assumptions

Click here to download Ray's paper that he presented at the Forecasting Forum 2003 in Wellington - 18 November 2003.